BusinessTN

Last year’s devastating earthquake and subsequent tsunami in the Indian Ocean reminded the world just how deadly those natural forces can be.

It also reminded Memphians that they live in the New Madrid fault zone—an area labeled as a high hazard region should an earthquake strike. Experts say it’s only a matter of when—not if—the area will suffer another massive earthquake like the ones in 1811-1812, during which the Mississippi River actually ran backwards for a time and the 13,000-acre Reelfoot Lake was formed.

While the effects of the next earthquake are hoped to be a long way off, this potential for danger already impacts new construction projects in the Memphis area through seismic mitigation requirements in local and state building codes. And with revisions likely for state and Memphis codes this year, building safely could get a little more expensive, a Memphis structural engineer and an earthquake expert say.

Traditionally, politicians, developers and building owners have resisted code changes, claiming the high costs would make it too expensive to build and would halt economic development. This argument was made in the early 1990s before a previous code revision, says Gary Patterson, the information services director for the University of Memphis’ Center for Earthquake Research and Information.

“And based on the building boom of the late 1990s, building starts were not adversely impacted by stricter building codes,” Patterson says.

State officials have been studying the possible adoption of even more stringent building codes as the newer International Building Code is supplanting a previous standard, the Standard Building Code. While cities must abide by any code adopted by the state, Memphis and other larger municipalities can make local exceptions, Patterson says.

Memphis officials who are responsible for recommending code changes to local government officials are considering one such alteration for the seismic requirements of the new IBC code, says structural engineer and seismic mitigation consultant Richard Howe. These officials are waiting until studies or sufficient experience with the seismic provisions of the new code are available to show if the more stringent requirements have merit, Howe says.

“These studies will also shed light on what can be done to minimize cost impact while producing better, safer construction,” Howe says.

The new code’s impact on final project price for new construction may vary greatly, Howe says. Factors include exact location, building materials and how seismic premiums are defined and determined, especially how costs are determined from a contractual approach, he says. Some sources put the estimated impact on the bottom line at zero to 2%, while others say it could be as high as 20%.

“That’s too huge a range to even discuss,” Howe says. “It all depends on the project and how it is paid for.”

Howe has had 30 years of experience in structural engineering and has been a vice president and regional manager for the Memphis office of ABS Consulting, an internationally prominent seismic risk management firm. He has worked on well-known Memphis landmarks, such as the FedExForum, the National Civil Rights Museum, AutoZone Park and AutoZone’s corporate headquarters. Auto- Zone’s building, built 10 years ago, was the first seismically base-isolated building in the central and eastern United States. Base-isolation technology dampens the effect of the ground’s movement on the building.

From a seismic risk standpoint, Memphis and the New Madrid area are considered to be a low probability/high risk area, Howe says. This means an earthquake is going to be a rare occurrence here, but it will cause a lot of damage when it does occur.

“And it’s human nature to be more concerned about risks that are more likely to happen,” Howe says. “The key to dealing with it is to recognize the issue on the front-end of a project and deal with it early, so you are not trying to struggle to meet code later in the game.”

In assessing the risk to its business, AutoZone decided in the mid-1990s that its new national headquarters needed to be built far above what was required to address seismic concerns. The company does $4 billion a year in sales, which translates to $11 million a day in transactions, says company construction project manager Phil Pecord.

The cost impact for the additional safety measures—the base isolation technology—was $100,000, or only 3% of the total project price, Pecord says.

“AutoZone considered the loss of business greater than the one-time cost,” Pecord says.