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What the GOP doesn’t have is a lock on the upper chamber’s position of top dog. Democratic Lt. Gov. John Wilder’s firm grip on a bipartisan coalition of supporters makes it unlikely the GOP can wrest control of the Senate speaker’s seat; however, there are some scenarios that still could vault challenger Ron Ramsey (R-Blountville) to the head of the class. Sen. Don McCleary (D-Humboldt) is wrestling with a change of parties, and Sen. Rosalind Kurita (D-Clarksville) has indicated in the past that given a choice she’d vote for Ramsey over Wilder. A recent loser in a hard-fought bid to unseat Joe Haynes (D-Goodlettsville) as Democratic Caucus Chairman, Kurita may be sufficiently disenfranchised to follow through.

Despite pressure from numerous top national GOP figures, it appears at least one intransigent Wilder loyalist from a group that includes Senators Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Curtis Person (R-Memphis), Mike Williams (R-Maynardville) and Randy McNally (R-Oak Ridge) will turn his back on the party and vote for Wilder for speaker. Since it would require only one from the renegade pack to vote for Wilder to return the 83-year-old to power, 40-year veteran lawmaker Person, a likely lame duck lawmaker anyway, may offer to do the dirty work alone. That would allow the younger lawmakers, who have incurred the wrath of many in their home constituencies over their Wilder support, the chance to save their polit- ical lives in future elections. Insulated by a new four-year term, Williams may choose not to accept Person’s offer. And Burchett appears determined to vote for Wilder no matter the political cost to the 40-year old lawmaker. No doubt all will face stiff primary opposition in their next election as a result of their Wilder sympathies. Consider that newly elected East Tennessee Republican Raymond Finney (R-Maryville) spent most of his professional life as a physician in a hospital basement. He entered the 2004 race late, raised little money, had no organization and no name recognition, and yet he beat incumbent Bill Clabough in large part with the simple contention that Clabough wasn’t Republican enough to properly represent his conservative constituency. There are other Ray Finneys out there to topple GOP lawmakers who vote for a Democrat.

Supposing Wilder remains speaker, he likely will be persuaded to apply the same formula for fairness that he employed under Democratic control to grant five of nine committee chairmanships to Republicans this upcoming session. And, as per his rule under Democratic control, Wilder would likely place a majority of Republicans on each committee. But talk is swirling that Wilder may resolve the situation by adding a tenth committee to the Senate, doing so either by splitting the sprawling Judiciary Committee into civil and criminal branches, or splitting commerce, labor and agriculture into pieces.

Even if Wilder resorts to such political gamesmanship, the GOP will make its best effort to convince Wilder it deserves control of Senate Finance, the most sought-after committee on Capitol Hill long guided by Nashville Democrat Doug Henry. Complicating matters is that Henry and Wilder have served together since 1956 and stripping Henry’s chairmanship would run counter to Wilder’s instinct for self-preservation. Health permitting, Henry might be difficult to dislodge, though a “chairman emeritus” position could be possible. That would be predicated on the condition that Henry’s pal McNally, currently chair of Senate Education, is the Republican chosen to lead the money committee.

Should the GOP fail to wrest away control of the finance committee, it stands to reason the party would next target control of the Senate Commerce committee, the place all business legislation travels and where all the fights between trial lawyers, union backers and business representatives are staged. But current chairman Jerry Cooper (D-McMinnville) has long been considered a palatable chairman to Republicans, a lawmaker with pretty solid pro-business principles, and he is also a Wilder loyalist; thus, the GOP may not target Cooper for replacement. Besides, if there is one politician with the political skills to maintain control of a committee under a GOP majority, it’s Cooper. In fact his wheeling and dealing may already have begun. In November, Cooper stepped down as co-chair of the joint fiscal review committee, a move many speculate was an early effort to retain control of Commerce. (The December disclosure that Cooper defaulted on $1 million of bank debt might render such efforts moot.)

If Cooper and Henry somehow both remain in place, Republicans would have to settle for control of lesser committees like State and Local, currently chaired by GOP nemesis Steve Cohen (D-Memphis). It would be a stunning Democratic accomplishment if all the Republicans got out of winning a majority in the Senate was additional control of one B-level committee. So much for the extreme makeover thesis.

Though the Commerce Committee may not see a change in its chairmanship, the committee itself will be quite different. Four of the nine senators who served on the committee are gone. Roscoe Dixon resigned the legislature to go to work for Shelby County. Clabough (Cooper’s chief GOP ally on the committee) and Democrats Jo Ann Graves and Larry Trail were ousted in the elections. Even the trial lawyers have a new lead lobbyist in conciliatory Mike Murphy, who replaces the more aggressive John Summers. Business lobbyists on the Hill are already fiercely advocating to have their favorite lawmaker placed on the committee and to keep other Senators, namely Kurita, off of it. GOP Senators with a shot include freshmen Jim Tracy (R-Murfreesboro) or Jamie Hagood (R-Knoxville), who has experience on House Commerce and would make a natural fit. Others include Burchett, given his Wilder loyalty and closeness to Cooper, and Bill Ketron (R-Murfreesboro). Possible Democratic replacements include McCleary and Tommy Kilby (D-Wartburg).

Reorganization may turn out to be the biggest story of the legislative session and one with repercussions that will last a decade. But after the wheeling and dealing of early January, here’s a sampling of what to expect policy-wise from the Republicans, Democrats and the administration in the coming legislative session.

GOP
* Expect Republicans in the Senate to push through several constitutional amendments. First would be an amendment to eliminate language in the state constitution guaranteeing the right to an abortion or state funding for it. Next, a constitutional amendment banning a state income tax. Next will be passage of the so-called Taxpayer Bill of Rights, or TABOR, which would cap the rate of spending growth in state government in an effort to halt progress toward the inevitable spending crisis that leads to raising taxes. It also would require citizen approval before tax increases. Last would be an amendment banning gay marriage in the state. All of the proposed amendments will likely be passed later in session forcing the Democratic-led House to postpone dealing with them until next year, an election year in which the Republicans could beat Democrats over the head in the press either for killing the proposed amendments or for delaying passage of them.

*Other long supported GOP measures that have been on the slow track under Democratic rule are likely to get a boost. For instance, expect legislation broadening the scope and limiting the oversight of charter schools to pass in the Senate.

*In the same category will be the push for tort reform, such as attempts to cap damages in lawsuits.

*An effort will be made to reduce the sales tax on food and drugs in the state or at least to create a sales tax holiday.

*Arguing such officials aren’t accountable to the citizenry, the push to change Tennessee’s archaic system from having an appointed attorney general and constitutional officers to elected ones will gain more traction under GOP rule.

DEMS
*Democrats want to bring down the high cost of prescription drugs for average Tennesseans, not just those on TennCare. Though accused of political grandstanding with the issue during the election season, Democrats are earnest about doing something about the issue. Re-importing drugs from Canada or joining a purchasing pool with other states are two possible avenues they’ll consider.

*After years of neglect, it looks like the Democratic-led House leadership will finally budge on various issues related to needed ethics reform in the state, particularly as they relate to the need for greater financial disclosure by lobbyists. Tired of hearing about how low Tennessee ranks on national report cards pertaining to ethics, House leaders are looking at small changes that will boost the state’s rankings and get the advocates off their backs. The main change under consideration is requiring lobbyists to disclose the size of their entertainment expenses, meaning the amount spent on parties wining and dining groups of lawmakers, and also to disclose which lawmakers attended their functions. No new legislation is under consideration that would require lobbyists in Tennessee to disclose their salaries or income. The Tennessee Lobbyists Association is closely monitoring the situation. Democratic insiders are adamant that the proposed changes are not the result of the work of TIGER—The Tennessee Institute for Government Ethics Reform—a group that grabbed headlines across the state this past summer by calling to the public’s attention the sorry state of lobbyist disclosure in Tennessee.

*Led by Bredesen, Democrats will lead a crackdown on the rampant methamphetamine problem in Tennessee. It is likely lawmakers will seek to relocate certain over-the-counter drugs used to produce meth, such as Sudafed, back behind the pharmacist’s counter. A statewide prescription drug card is also a possibility to track meth makers buying their ingredients in bulk. fThe push is on to change the way the state distributes its 11 electoral votes in presidential elections. Democrats want legislation granting the winner in each of Tennessee’s nine congressional districts one vote and giving the overall winner in the state two additional votes.

*Democrat Steve Cohen is planning a push to legalize medical marijuana in the state.

*With GOP support, Dems will seek to return the $30 million in state shared taxes to cities and counties. The funds were stripped for two straight years to balance the state budget. Accompanying legislation will make it easier for cities and counties to consolidate and modernize, or even require it in some cases.

ADMINISTRATION
Though he got most of his legislative agenda passed with the necessary cooperation of Republicans last year, Gov. Phil Bredesen spent the recent election season traveling to the districts of the very GOP lawmakers he worked with to tell their constituents he couldn’t work with those elected officials, please send Democrats instead. While everyone understands partisan politics is fair game in an election season, many Republican lawmakers are still pretty sore about Bredesen’s disparagement. To say the least, his honeymoon with the GOP is over. And now a Republican controlled Senate awaits his agenda.

*Bredesen has driven the state’s legislative agenda the past two years. With a somewhat vanilla new legislative agenda, many believe it will be a quiet session that ends quickly. Of course that prediction is made every year. TennCare still may be dismantled, work that would dominate the session. If TennCare were killed, Bredesen conceivably could start a new pared down version of “TennCare” by executive order. Or wait to do that in 2006, an election year.

*Bredesen will find a way to move forward with funding for a statewide pre-kindergarten program, to initially target economically disadvantaged youths. If TennCare is eliminated and the state returns to a less expensive Medicaid program, some portion of the savings will be used to underwrite this top initiative.

*Murmurings also are heard that Bredesen’s plans for the upcoming session include making changes and improvements to the state’s higher education system, including issues related to governance as part of his promise to streamline and simplify government. Education reforms in pre-K and higher ed are expected to be the focus of the last two years of Bredesen’s term and could lift the state’s ability to recruit new industry investment to the state.

*Bredesen may also at least partially join with Democratic lawmakers in the push to lower prescription drug costs for the average Tennessean. Look for the administration to suggest generic drug laws that mimic what has worked in other states.

Whatever Bredesen’s agenda, he’ll be accomplishing it without the help of super-lobbyist Anna Windrow, who resigned from her position as senior adviser for legislation and policy in his cabinet just weeks before the opening of session. Since the state lacks a cooling off policy, Windrow likely will gin up her private lobbying practice and quickly attract some of the largest and most influential clients in the state.

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