BusinessTN

Among key political operatives working for the Bush-Cheney re-election juggernaut, Chattanoogan Michael Lebovitz is among the farthest below the radar, at least in Tennessee. As National Jewish Outreach Coord- inator, the 40-year-old Lebovitz is responsible for efforts to fully capitalize on a narrow but consequential shift materializing in the voting patterns of American Jews, historically a liberal bloc of the voting public.

Lebovitz routinely travels to Bush-Cheney headquarters in Arlington, Va., to confer with campaign manager Ken Mehlman, the man shepherding the incumbent president’s push toward a staggering $200 million campaign chest, a multiple of his Democratic adversary, John Kerry. Lebovitz’s role in that mission entails not just coalition building among Jews open to the GOP’s message but also working to convert a largely Democratic Jewish American community and to tap its deep pockets.

How successful has his work been among the 18,000 Jews in Tennessee and the roughly six million across the nation? While steering clear of specifics, Lebovitz does say the campaign has had “a terrific response in the Jewish community in support of the president” over the last six months.

Professionally, Lebovitz is a senior vice president with publicly traded CBL & Associates Properties., the largest mall owner in the Southeast, co-founded by his father. Lebovitz is also a national officer with the United Jewish Communities. Prior to being tabbed for official campaign status, Lebovitz shone brightly as one of only 150 “rangers” who raised in excess of $200,000 from the gen- eral population for the Bush-Cheney ticket. A financial and fundraising advisor to Tennessee senators Bill Frist and Lamar Alexander in the recent past, Lebovitz sums up his current sales pitch on behalf of President Bush quite simply.

“Clearly, the president has been very strong in leadership on Israel. He’s also been very strong in his renouncement of anti-Semitism, which is a major issue today not just in the United States but around the world. I like to focus on the president, his accomplishments and his support of the Jewish community. It’s easy to sell a product you believe in and I truly believe in President Bush and what he stands for.”

The uphill climb Lebovitz faces is steep. In the 2000 election, American Jews voted 79% for Al Gore and running mate Joe Lieberman, the first Jewish vice presidential candidate in the nation’s history. In the three previous elections, Democratic candidates Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton each took in excess of 73% of the Jewish vote. The last GOP presidential candidate to gain any real traction in the Jewish community was Ronald Reagan, who, based in part on his strong stand on the defense of Israel, took 39% of the vote in 1980 to Democrat Jimmy Carter’s 45%. (The last Republican president to win a Jewish plurality was Warren G. Harding in 1924.)

Given Bush’s war on terror and strong support of Israel, it’s no mystery why Lebovitz exudes confidence that Bush’s numbers in the Jewish community could spike come Nov. 2. Pundits agree if a Jewish voter’s single issue is Israel there is no better friend of that country than the current White House. Independent of Bush’s performance in office, though, is a slow turning of the Jewish voting demographic in the GOP’s favor. In a survey released by the American Jewish Committee (AJC) earlier this year, Jews who considered themselves Republican had risen from 9% in 2000 to 16% in 2003. A similar AJC poll conducted before Saddam Hussein’s capture showed Bush’s Jewish support in the 2004 election would increase from 19% to 31%. It’s significant given that historically, with the exception of African Americans, there has been no more dependable group of Democratic voters than Jews. Not surprisingly, slippage in allegiance to the Democratic Party has occurred predominantly among younger Jews, with whom voting GOP has largely lost its stigma. Why? Under-40 Jews tend to be assimilated into the overall American culture more than their parents. So prevalent are interfaith marriages in Judaism today that many Jews are not practicing Jews, or, if they are, tend to associate less with their indigenous community than prior generations.

So Bush is a slam-dunk, right? Not really. Despite all the positives pointing in Bush’s direction, there are still many factors that can limit his campaign’s prospects. In many Jewish circles, Bush still pays for the sins of his father, the 41st president, whose support of Israel would be characterized as lukewarm at best. Prescott Bush, grandfather of the current president, was a director of a New York bank where Nazi supporters stowed vast riches. Jewish fear of the Christian right and its effect on the American Jewish population is also still very much an obstacle to most Jews voting GOP, even if they can see some sense of it under Bush. Lastly, although support of Israel is a central issue for many Jews, most are not one-dimensional voters and still harbor concerns about Bush’s conservative domestic agenda. Democrats argue Israel doesn’t even qualify as a partisan issue given that the Democratic presidential candidate will no doubt also come out strongly in support of the country. Others describe the talk of the Jewish vote tipping GOP as an overwritten trend story that’s been predicted but not come to fruition in several decades of discussion, which is true.

In the final analysis, demographic data perhaps best size up the importance of the Jewish vote. The shrinking Jewish American population represents just 2% of the nation’s population. Jewish populations in states like Tennessee are so sparse (0.3%) that a uniform response from the community wouldn’t be enough to trigger an electoral vote shift. Conversely, the largest conglomerations of American Jews are in areas so dominated by Democrats that even a drastic change in Jewish political allegiances would be muted. States with the largest Jewish populations, New York (8.7%), New Jersey (5.7%) and Massachusetts (4.3%) are prime democratic strongholds. So, for instance, even if a significant percentage of New York City’s one million Jews decided to vote for Bush in 2004, it wouldn’t alter the state’s general political disposition.

Undeterred, Lebovitz says the Bush campaign’s push to win the Jewish vote is in full throttle in places like California, a historically Democratic state but one in which the two recent GOP gubernatorial candidates, Tom McClintock and Arnold Shwarzenegger, combined to attract 40% of the state’s Jewish vote. “Every state is in play,” Lebovitz says. “We’re not taking any state for granted. The California election shows why we’re optimistic that we can do well in California, and elsewhere.” Among other states GOPers consider battleground states where the Jewish vote could make a difference are Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Maryland and Michigan.

Interestingly, it is Michigan that may in fact play the biggest role as it relates to Bush’s policy in the Middle East. Between 1.2 million and three million Arab Americans currently reside in the United States, (including 12,880 in Tennessee). Over half live in five states: Florida, New York, New Jersey, California and Michigan. Only in Michigan, however, do Arab Ameri- cans comprise more than 1% of a state’s population. In 2000, Bush took about 45% of the Arab American vote to Gore’s 38%. That was a reverse from the results of the 1996 race where Democrat Bill Clinton took 51%. A January Zogby poll found that Bush’s support among Arab Americans had dropped to 28%. Meanwhile, 40% of respondents said they would vote for “any” Democratic candidate. It’s slippage that has not gone unnoticed by the Bush administration.

“There’s a coalition effort for Arab Americans that is equally as important as the Jewish Outreach component to the Bush campaign,” Lebovitz says. “The President has been very clear that he wants to reach out to all Americans.”