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Passage of the budget also will dominate the upcoming legislative session. With TennCare and a few other programs devouring ever more revenue, more right-sizing cuts to state government are anticipated, which, while less drastic than last year’s 9% across-the-board cuts, will keep Bredesen’s legislative team working hard for their money on Capitol Hill.

Given that 2004 is an election year for half of the Senate and all state representatives, expect a short session (albeit one rife with political posturing). Lawmakers will want to get home early to campaign, meaning a budget will in all likelihood be passed for the second straight year by the end of May.

Here then is a look at some of the legislation likely to make news in the 2004 session.

Vetting the board. Lawmakers will at last be given the opportunity to confirm Bredesen’s choices for the state’s lottery board. Given the outrage expressed by some citizens across Tennessee to the high salaries granted to top lottery executives, as well as incentive plans that extend, strangely, even to the lottery’s general counsel, some amount of political posturing is expected, including a possible push to cap top administrative salaries.

Snuffing out hypocrisy. Both the state building commission and the Capitol Commission have now passed a ban on smoking in most of the Capitol. Although House Speaker Jimmy Naifeh says he doesn’t like being told what to do by such entities, a recent $1 million renovation to the House, which includes scrubbing decades of tar off the walls, should keep lawmakers who disagree with the ban from protesting too much. Years ago lawmakers banned smoking in public places, conveniently exempting themselves from that law. But now with powerful chain-smoking state Sen. Bob Rochelle (D-Lebanon) out of state politics and long serving Rep. Shelby Rhinehart (D-Spencer) deceased (Rhinehart was frequently spotted with two or more cigarettes burning simultaneously at his desk on the House floor), anti-smoking lawmakers have at last found traction on the issue. Like they say, in politics everything is timing.

Lost cause. Speaking of cigarettes, some lawmakers will continue a push to raise Tennessee’s cigarette tax per pack about 40 cents to national averages in an effort to raise more money while dissuading minors from taking up the habit. Given the state’s powerful tobacco growers lobby and Bredesen’s apparent aversion for a tax hike of any sort at the present time, no movement is expected on the issue. Lifting Tennessee’s tax to the national average would raise $390 million for the state.

Check and balance. Currently in the state of Tennessee, the maximum punishment for a person who writes a bad check to a retailer is $20, the same amount since 1988 when lawmakers upped the punishment from $15. Today it costs a business roughly $40 to process a bad check and about $120 in court fees to prosecute a bad check writer. Small business advocates will push to increase the punishment to $30.

Over-compensation. Hoping to improve the state of job recruitment in Tennessee, Bredesen will assist small business lobbying efforts aimed at reforming workers compensation plans. But what Tennessee really needs it isn’t likely to get—at least not yet. Tennessee currently is one of only two states without an administrative appeals system in place to handle disputes that arise from worker’s compensation claims. Thus cases go straight to court where wildly varying judgments have come about, leading to forum shopping. The expense of forming an appeals system appears too high at the current juncture; therefore, expect lawmakers in 2004 to deal with lesser issues such as capping lawyers fees to reduce the incentive for attorneys to always push clients to seek higher settlements in other courts.

Piling on. Small business interests will push lawmakers to study the cumulative effect of state-imposed health insurance benefit mandates on health premiums and to subject all future mandates to a cost-benefit analysis. Small businesses typically bear the lion’s share of the burden when lawmakers enhance the range of health insurance policies such as mandating coverage for divorced spouses.

The battle wages on. Small business interests also will continue to pressure a House employee affairs subcommittee to end the bottleneck on legislation banning municipalities in Tennessee from passing living wage ordinances. The bill, which would undercut future attempts by cities to mandate a higher minimum wage than the federal level, has passed the full Senate.

To elect or not to elect. The lead lobby for county government will push lawmakers to make the position of school superintendents an elected one as a local option. Former Gov. Ned McWherter’s education reform package ended the popular election of school bosses in 1992. Past attempts to reverse that decision failed. Nevertheless, the Tennessee Association of County Services believes support is strong for a revival of old methods and is vowing to push hard for change. Only four states currently elect superintendents. The business lobby strongly opposes the idea, fearful of further politicizing public education. Another controversial education bill would mandate that each Tennessee county have a single school district, which would force many systems to consolidate.

Battle with the bulge. The push is on to increase funding levels for higher education given the inevitable new demands created by Tennessee’s lottery. The availability of lottery scholarships is expected to mean more Tennessee youths will be attending Tennessee colleges and universities in coming years. As well, students who in the past might have left the state to attend college might now opt to stay in Tennessee given the availability of lottery scholarships. The legislation setting up Tennessee’s lottery contained no provisions to fund additional faculty and capital improvements necessary when enrollment spikes.

Mo’ money. Many have speculated that Bredesen, a former founder/CEO himself, is positioning to beef up the state’s ECD efforts and will push lawmakers to revamp corporate recruitment and incentive structures in Tennessee. ECD officials have in recent months openly discussed results of a poll taken of companies who considered relocating to Tennessee but didn’t. Respondents pointed to issues like workers compensation run amuck and greater incentives offered by competing states as deterrents to relocating to Tennessee. The release of such information, usually kept hidden from competitors, indicates that perhaps Bredesen is setting the table for a frank discussion of the need for more money and greater administrative flexibility in attracting new investment to the state.

Rural versus urban? In response to a court order calling for the equalization of teacher pay across the state, Bredesen earmarked $27 million for teachers in 75 smaller rural districts in last year’s budget. How much Bredesen will include in the budget this year, where the money will come from (larger, wealthier districts?) and how large of an allocation lawmakers will approve will be decided.

Plugged Nickels. Bredesen’s administration and the Department of Revenue will continue a push to make changes to the state’s corporate tax code in an effort to plug loopholes that allow companies to shift income and avoid the excise tax.

Better or Worse. Addressing two hot button issues leading up to the fall elections, Republican lawmakers are backing a plan to bar the state from recognizing civil unions and domestic partnerships and pushing a constitutional amendment that would limit access to abortions.

License to security. The push among some lawmakers to further tighten restrictions on the issuance of driver’s licenses in Tennessee—restrictions considered lax with regard to illegal immigrants—is ongoing.

Even-steven. Among other fine-tuning measures, lawmakers will address an inconsistency in the law establishing Tennessee’s new lottery scholarship program whereby home schooled students must achieve higher marks on their ACTs (23 compared to 19) than other students in order to participate.

Tightening the screws. Lawmakers will also fine tune legislation guiding charter schools in Tennessee. Some lawmakers want to end ambiguities in the current law that previously allowed students greater-than-anticipated access to attend charter schools. Republicans vow to work to loosen up access for students. That tug of war will determine if it will be easier or tougher for charter schools to succeed.

Indecent exposure Last year, lawmakers debated legislation that would have banned citizens from watching pornographic DVDs and videos in their cars if the images on the video were visible to passing motorists. Constitutional issues got in the way of any significant movement on the issue. Now lawmakers may have a new problem on their hands. U.S. wireless networks and mobile handsets will soon be fast enough to download and play video clips, meaning adult videos will be coming to cell phones. Maybe that wasn’t such a silly piece of proposed legislation after all.

Modest Proposal. Sen. Jim Bryson (R-Franklin) plans to introduce to lawmakers a constitutional amendment that would mirror the much-publicized Taxpayer Bill of Rights in Colorado. Put simply, the amendment would cap the growth of future state spending at a rate in line with population growth and inflation. A supermajority could override the provision.

Indecent access A technology bill aimed at curbing cable theft will continue to incur the wrath of the high-tech community, which says the bill would allow cable companies to pick their victims among average Internet users. Backed by the Tennessee Cable Telecommunications Association, the bill addresses modern technologies that didn’t exist when cable theft statutes were first adopted in the 1990s. While it would make it a criminal offense to use such illicit devices as the “black box,” it would also give cable companies the right to deem any future computer gadgets illegal, say the bill’s critics. The bill would make it a criminal offense for any person to “knowingly and with the intent to defraud a communication service provider of any lawful compensation for providing a service.”

Who’s the predator? Lawmakers will labor over a draft of predatory lending legislation drawn up by the Department of Financial Institutions. The bill is an attempt to craft compromise legislation that addresses predatory lending problems, but without restricting credit in Tennessee.

License to express. Bredesen allowed the “Choose Life” license plates bill to pass into law without his signature. At that time, Bredesen issued a stern warning about the future use of what he termed political messaging on state license plates. Those very “Choose Life” plates have not surprisingly now become the subject of a lawsuit between the Tennessee Right to Life group and the ACLU. This session, Bredesen could push for legislation to reign in specialty license plates, which he says have spiraled out of control into “constitutionally suspect territory.”

The bean counter. In the aftermath of longtime state treasurer Steve Adams’ decision to join the Tennessee Lottery, lawmakers will vote to elect a new investment manager for the state for the first time in over two decades. History shows that lawmakers generally fill the position from within—meaning that current interim treasurer Dale Sims, a 20-plus-year assistant to Adams, has the inside track. The buzz on Capitol Hill, however, is that current commissioner of financial institutions, Kevin Lavender, could get a shot at the position if he so elects.

Extra credit. Republicans will push to create a research and development tax credit for businesses that create new products in Tennessee. The GOP also wants to expand the current state job creation tax credit available now only to companies that add at least 25 jobs and $500,000 in investment.

Certifiable. GOP lawmakers want to address the state’s teacher shortage by making it easier for professionals not teachers by trade to gain accreditation.

Slippery slope. Memphis lawmakers, aided by Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton, will push the legislature to amend the state constitution to allow casino gambling at the Pyramid in Memphis. The facility, currently home to the NBA, soon will be empty when the Grizzlies move to the FedEx Forum. The last push by Memphians for casino gambling in 1994 garnered only eight of the needed 22 votes in the Senate. Chances are slim the measure would pass this year even though Tennessee broke significant new ground in 2001 by getting a lottery approved. Researchers say Memphians comprise 30-40% of the casino business in Tunica, Miss.

Never again. In the aftermath of the scandal surrounding the unchecked spending habits of former University of Tennessee President John Shumaker, lawmakers will pass lots of legislation aimed at insulating the state from similar problems in the future, including bills outlining how to dismiss negligent members of the UT board of trustees.

Elephants never forget. Pushed by animal rights activists, lawmakers will again be confronted with legislation banning circuses in Tennessee that use pachyderms in their shows.

Right to life. Following a Nashville nursing home fire this past summer in which more than a dozen residents perished, lawmakers will pass legislation to compel operators of nursing homes to install sprinkler systems in all of their Tennessee facilities. The bill will constitute a rare blow against the powerful lobby that has protected the nursing home industry for decades. Present Tennessee law does not require lobbyists to make public the amount they are paid to represent a particular piece of legislation or a company. Thus there is no telling how much the nursing home industry has spent annually to be represented on the Hill and protect its interests—presumably more than the $50,000 it would have taken to equip the Nashville facility with sprinklers.

Kill bill. Once again, a small batch of lawmakers, including Rep. Frank Buck (D-Dowelltown), will push for legislation that requires lobbyists to disclose all such spending. Odds are the Jimmy Naifeh-led leadership will ensure the legislation dies a quiet death.

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